What Just Happened? #53
And, boiling frogs in the name of science
Welcome to Common Sense and Whiskey, a short, sharp, once a week look at the world out there.
After reading today’s column you’ll be briefed up on whether the new German government may make a difference for Ukraine, and how Viktor Orban’s time may be running short, with the rise of an intriguing young politician in Budapest. Plus, AI scolds me for calling frog boiling ‘despicable.‘
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Here we go:
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GERMANY: Based on his first weeks on the job, the new German Chancellor deserves his honeymoon. Friedrich Merz’s early moves have hit the right notes, and provide a clarifying contrast with Zeitenwende v1.0, as declared by former Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Scholz sometimes seemed frozen in the glare of international media, Merz’s maneuvering early on suggests he has given this some thought.
Before he even assumed office, as „designierter Bundeskanzler“ (Chancellor-elect), Merz pushed through the outgoing parliament a maneuver that would help him immensely when he assumed office. He found a way around the so-called ‘debt brake.’
The ‘debt brake’ in one paragraph:
It’s a fiscal rule to ensure German budget discipline, and constitutionally limit borrowing. It was enacted as the Eurocrisis flared in 2009, when Germany panicked that it might be called on to bail out less healthy European economies. The debt brake restricts the federal government’s structural deficit to no more than 0.35% of GDP per year and requires that German states maintain balanced budgets.
The wider saga would take whole columns, but just a note here: the CDU and SPD, then as today the largest parties in Germany’s governing coalition, wrote the debt brake into the constitution. And now, in the last 75 days, they’ve engineered themselves a way around it.
Which is good from Kyiv’s vantage point, because here and now in 2025, the debt brake has held Berlin back from giving Ukraine full-throated support, until now. Thanks to Merz’s parliamentary maneuvering, ‘defense expenditures’ are exempt from the debt brake limits. How do German defense expenditures help Ukraine?
Merz and his allies specifically wrote the their way around the debt brake to exempt Government spending in a few areas: the Bundeswehr (the army), civil defense, intelligence services, cybersecurity, and ‘aid to countries attacked in violation of international law.’ Like Ukraine.
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Merz made much during the campaign of his promise to supply longer range German missiles to Kyiv, specifically the Taurus, a long-range (300 kilometers) cruise missile that would extend Ukraine’s attack range, bringing within reach, for example, the bridge across the Kerch Strait, which separates Crimea from Russia’s Krasnodar Krai.
Have a look at this map to see that the hastily constructed Kerch bridge vastly simplifies Russia’s resupply of occupied Crimea:
He didn’t declare that, yes, now Germany is going to give you weapons to potentially strike at Russian targets deeper inside Russia. Instead, four days after he became Chancellor, on his trip to Kyiv with the leaders of England, France and Poland, Merz announced that Berlin would henceforth employ strategic ambiguity about what arms Germany supplies to Ukraine, and when.
He reaffirmed that policy two days ago during Zelenskyy's visit to Berlin. Germany, he said, would no longer publicly discuss specifics about weapons systems—including Taurus missiles.
Merz and Zelenskyy also declared that the two countries will focus on collaboration, on developing and manufacturing long-range weapons systems, including missiles and drones, including construction of new manufacturing capabilities inside Ukraine.
(Donald Trump has focused on joint investment with Ukraine in minerals extraction, a project with a decades-long time horizon. If Merz and Zelenzkyy bear down, a successful collaboration could make real and significant changes in the alliance structure of central Europe in just the next several years.)
Merz explicitly pledged €5 billion in new military aid to Ukraine. While no longer encumbered by the debt brake, such an expenditure requires parliamentary approval. Will it pass?
A majority in the Bundestag, which comprises 630 seats, is 316 votes, and for now the two main opposition parties don’t have a blocking majority— AfD has 152 seats and The Left (Die Linke) has 64 seats, so the outlook for political approval is good.
John Kampfner wrote in the Observer last Sunday about Merz’s chancellorship being:
“a tenure that is already being written off by some and described by others as the last-chance saloon for democratic politics, with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland waiting in the wings.”
Not so fast. Merz’s Zeitenwende v2.0 may grab hold, and actually get some things done. At least during Merz’s honeymoon, the chancellor gets the benefit of the doubt. Let’s watch and see.
ONE LAST NOTE: While Zelenskyy was in Berlin, Merz said the Europeans are in serious talks with the U.S. about new sanctions on Russia. This would be in line with the ‘Big Four’ Europeans’ ‘never give up on America’ attitude. Should they succeed in persuading Trump to apply meaningful pressure on the Russians I will be very surprised. And I will hail their patience.
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VIKTOR ORBAN’S BIGGEST CHALLENGE: I’ve been on about electoral politics in eastern Europe here lately, partly because there have been lots of elections in the last two years (Czechia - presidential, Germany - parliamentary, Moldova - presidential, Poland - presidential, Romania - presidential, Slovakia - parliamentary), and partly because it seems like a node of Putin-friendly countries is trying to form.
Right in the middle of this map is Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, and its electoral turn is coming in less than a year. This week, a short sketch of the road ahead:
Viktor Orbán in one paragraph:
As a young liberal firebrand, Viktor Orbán demanded the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Hungary in a 1989, marking his place as a young democratic leader. In the 1990s his Fidesz party capitalized on disillusionment with the economic transition from Communism. Returning to power in 2010, Orbán reshaped the country’s constitution, media, and judiciary into a xenophobic, prickly “illiberal democracy” and today’s biggest contrarian headache for the European Union.
Now comes would be Orbán-slayer Péter Magyar, a 44 year old insurgent politician. Magyar’s background suggests he was meant to be in politics. His grandfather was a judge and TV show host, and his great-uncle, Ferenc Mádl, was Hungary’s president from 2000 to 2005.
Magyar was born in Budapest. If any one issue flutters warning flags, that may be it. He’s a city boy. Watch as the campaign progresses and be mindful of Magyar’s lack of an authentic rural, backstory in a land made up of regions (for atmosphere, see any Stefan Zweig short story, or check out Darkenbloom, a newly translated fiction book by Austrian author Eva Menasse.)
The institutional backbone of Fidesz’s and Orbán’s support is deep-rooted support in rural areas, small towns, and villages. (This is just as true for Poland’s right/nationalist and very Catholic PiS party in its runoff in Poland on Sunday).
Hungarian parliamentary elections must be held by next April, and a Medián survey showed Magyar’s party, Tisza, holding a nine percent lead over Orbán Fidesz.
Yes, there’s nearly a year to go. Yes, it’s a long time in politics. Yes, Fidesz Party will surely use strongman tactics as election day nears. But Magyar’s story is compelling, combining youth, intrigue and tabloid gossip.
Consider: Péter Magyar and his wife Judit Varga divorced in March 2023. Varga was then Hungary's Minister of Justice, but later resigned, preparing to lead the Fidesz list for the 2024 European Parliament elections. Magyar continued as a board member at government-controlled MBH Bank.
A scandal erupted in February last year around a presidential pardon and coverup of child abuse. This ultinately led to the resignation of Hungarian President Katalin Novák, and of Magyar’s ex-wife (who, as required by Hungarian law, countersigned the pardon).
Magyar then uploaded a video to Facebook demonstrating his disgust, and alleging deep corruption in government. Next, he released an audio recording in which his ex-wife appeared to discuss the removal of evidence in a separate high-profile corruption case a former Justice Ministry State Secretary.
Varga accused Magyar of verbal and physical abuse during their marriage, allegations he denied, claiming they were meant to discredit him. Cynics among the political press called it all a carefully choreographed maneuver by Magyar to begin his campaign to dethrone Orbán.
Magyar rolled out his new political platform, the Respect and Freedom Party, or (Tisztelet és Szabadság, or ‘TISZA’), on March 15, 2024, just over a month after the clemency scandal came to light.
(A WORD ABOUT ‘TISZA’: it’s an acronym cobbling together the Hungarian words ‘Tisztelet’ and ‘Szabadság,’ ‘respect’ and ‘freedom,’ with an ad man’s touch, because Tisza is also the name of Hungary’s second-longest river. It carries national symbolism, geographic familiarity, and embeds desirable values, all in five letters.)
(A WORD ABOUT ‘MAGYAR’: The word ‘Magyar’ means ‘Hungarian.’ Now, if a U.S. politician named “Joe American” showed up, most people would roll their eyes. Apparently, in this case it’s his real name, and it’s not that uncommon. Many Hungarians’ surnames, they say, suggest ethnicity or geography—like Tóth, for example, which means ‘Slovak.’)
Magyar’s movement centers on anti-corruption, but he’s portraying himself as socially conservative and playing footsie with nationalists, hoping to peel off disaffected Fidesz voters. A TISZA goal: "show that we conservatives, civic democrats, social democrats and liberals are first of all Hungarians.”
Meanwhile TISZA is trying to nuance Russia’s war on Ukraine to death. Magyar condemns Russian aggression but opposes sending Hungarian weapons or troops. He’s pro-EU and pro-NATO but acknowledges his country's reliance on Russian energy.
For now, he only offers vague goals to separate Hungary from energy dependence on Moscow, like developing alternative energy sources and infrastructure. He’ll surely need to do better than that.
With nearly a year until the vote, for the moment, Orbán seems off balance. As the campaign progresses, Magyar can expect backing from friendly pro-European groups. The EU would be thrilled to have its biggest pest evicted from Budapest's Castle District.
Magyar may have come along at an opportune time. Let’s see if he’s in it to the finish.
[TURKISH PARALLELS: The rise of a young charismatic leader against a tired and tiresome leader in Hungary has echoes of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Türkiye. Erdoğan has jailed the popular mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, who is also the main opposition candidate and biggest threat to the Turkish president’s continued rule. Both young challengers bring pressure for a more hopeful, democratic future. And neither current leader’s forced retirement would be lamented.]
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SALTY POLISH RUNOFF CAMPAIGN: With final polling showing the Polish presidential race just about dead even, politics has turned salty as the seawater in the resort town of Sopot, between Gdańsk and Gdynia on Poland’s Baltic Sea coast.
Voting is Sunday and the Politico.eu Poll of Polls average shows a dead heat, with Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski (the government backed candidate) at 47 percent and Karol Nawrocki (the far right nationalist PiS candidate) at 46 percent.
Polling is so tight that even the Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has indulged in public accusations that PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński knew about allegations Nawrocki has lined up prostitutes for his election night party guests.
Here is a screenshot of Google’s English translation of the article causing all the trouble, from Polish online outlet Onet:
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TRAUMA: Gosh, I was sorry to read yesterday about the mental anguish President Trump has suffered over the brutal video edit CBS News committed against him. Goodness! In that case he must be just torn up inside over the fate of all these men he’s sent to CECOT:
THAT’S JUST WHO HE IS: Meanwhile, elsewhere in the pursuit of power, JD Vance’s self-reported heritage turns out to be fake. The Times of London reports that Vance:
“takes pride in declaring himself to be a ‘Scots-Irish hillbilly at heart’ but a trawl of genealogy records has found no evidence linking the US vice-president to Ireland.”
It seems that despite a “glossy 24-page dossier titled ‘The Family Footsteps of JD Vance’ … researchers admitted they had ‘not established a conclusive family link’ to Northern Ireland.
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AND FINALLY: In their new takedown of Joe Biden, the book Original Sin, Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson write:
“It’s worth noting that boiling frog syndrome is apocryphal. When scientists tried to replicate the parable in real life, their research subjects leaped out of the pot.”
The story that research scientists would set out to boil frogs sounded like it might itself be apocryphal. So I appealed to a higher court.
Question: “On page thirty of Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson's book Original Sin, they write: ‘It's worth noting that boiling frog syndrome is apocryphal. When scientists tried to replicate the parable in real life, their research subjects leaped out of the pot.’ Can you uncover the names of the despicable research scientists who set out to boil frogs?”
Perplexity, summarized: “The historical record does … include the names of several 19th-century scientists who conducted experiments involving frogs and heated water:
• Friedrich Leopold Goltz (1869): German physiologist who conducted experiments on frogs with and without brains, observing their reactions to heated water. Normal frogs would attempt to escape, brain-damaged frogs would not.
• Heinzmann (1872): Conducted experiments with frogs and slowly heated water. Reported that frogs would not attempt to escape if the water was heated very slowly, but this has been disputed by later scientists.
• Fratscher (1875): Corroborated Heinzmann’s findings….”
ChatGPT, summarized: Also cites Goltz, Heinzmann and Fratscher, and finds contemporary names to add to the list:
“Douglas Melton (1995): Harvard biologist stated that frogs will not remain passive in gradually heated water; they will try to escape.
George R. Zug: Curator of reptiles and amphibians at the National Museum of Natural History affirmed that frogs will attempt to escape.
Victor H. Hutchison (2002): Zoologist at the University of Oklahoma demonstrated that frogs will try to escape.
Literal and dead serious, ChatGPT concludes that “while early experiments suggested that frogs might not react to slowly increasing temperatures, modern science has shown that frogs will attempt to escape as conditions become unfavorable.”
Claude found three people down in Brazil who tried boiling frogs just seven years ago.
“The most recent and well-documented study was conducted in 2018 by three researchers from the Department of Physiology of São Paulo's Biosciences Institute in Brazil. Agustín Camacho, Caroline Molina and Fernando Ribeiro, using bullfrogs, found that when heated at slower rates, frogs jumped out at lower temperatures.”
Claude was also judgmental. It slapped me down for calling frog boiling ‘despicable:‘
“I should note that calling these researchers "despicable" seems quite unfair. Their 2018 study was conducted to scientifically test a widely believed but unverified claim, and their findings actually helped debunk the myth. Camacho's interpretation for these results is that animals actually react to the amount of heat exchanged.” Furthermore, “these researchers were working to establish scientific facts rather than engage in pointless cruelty.”
In conclusion, thanks to the dogged pursuit of modern science, we’ve learned today that frogs will attempt to escape a pot of water as conditions become unfavorable.
For your consideration.
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See you next week.
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Cheers,
Bill
