Welcome. Let’s see what’s going on in the world this week. Today is Saturday, September 9, 2023.
Today we have the G20 in Delhi, more on Ukraine, China and Russia, ‘elections’ in Zimbabwe, mayhem in the DRC, German disapproval of UK prisons, Sweden’s baby naming law, some fine military garb and a nice selection of further weekend reading.
SUMMIT SKIPPING: Pearls have been clutched over Chinese President Xi skipping the G20 in Delhi. Is it a snub? Of Modi? The US? The institution of the G20 itself?
President Biden left Washington Thursday for Delhi, going AWOL at the ASEAN summit September 5th through 7th in Jakarta – or maybe more appropriately, going AWAT, absent while almost there, because of the time he is spending in Asia, first in Delhi then on to Vietnam for a state visit tomorrow.
It all gives the impression that Mr. Biden regards a meeting with General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party Nguyễn Phú Trọng as more important than a visit to ASEAN. His trip to Hanoi is to "increase peace, prosperity, and stability in the region," as the White House put it in a statement. During the president’s visit, Vietnam and the US are expected to “upgrade their bilateral relationship from a ‘comprehensive partnership’ to a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership,’ the highest level in Vietnam’s diplomatic hierarchy.”
Karishma Vaswani, the BBC’s former lead Asia presenter, calls the missed ASEAN visit an own goal.
”Relationships — good ones at least — take time, effort and work. Building trust means being sincere and genuine in those attempts. A Jakarta stopover would have been an easy win for Biden at a time of an economically weaker China. Skipping it makes the US look like it just wants a marriage of convenience with Asia, rather than a partnership of any real substance.”
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India has neither signed nor ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and is therefore not obligated to arrest Vladimir Putin if he travels there. But the Russian president has already said that he won’t attend the summit, probably because he fears being ostracized like he was at the previous G20 in Indonesia.
Instead of moving and shaking in Delhi, later this month Mr. Putin will find himself bowing and scraping in Vladivostok, to Kim Jung-Un of all people, in an epically humiliating quest for artillery shells.
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UKRAINE: The Biden administration promised another billion dollars to Kyiv this week, as part of a two day visit to the Ukrainian capital by Secretary of State Blinken. The longer the war, the louder the critics, of course, but one effective criticism was made in a New York Times article when the war wasn’t yet a month old, that the west is ready to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian: “Such is the tenuous balance the Biden administration has tried to maintain as it seeks to help Ukraine lock Russia in a quagmire without inciting a broader conflict with a nuclear-armed adversary or cutting off potential paths to de-escalation,” the Times wrote.
More people are warning that the fighting is turning into trench warfare, World War One style. For example, Wolfgang Münchau here, from the New Statesman:
“Robert Brieger, the current chair of the European Union Military Committee, warned in an interview with the German daily Die Welt of a war of attrition with no winners. He concluded that Russia could hold out for a very long time and that Ukraine is unlikely to regain all of the occupied territories.”
Stian Jenssen, chief of staff to Nato’s leader Jens Stoltenberg, suggested, and then was made to apologize for, a compromise deal.
“The deal envisaged by Jenssen would be one in which Vladimir Putin got the bragging rights of having obtained territory in eastern Ukraine, plus an official recognition of Russia’s claim to Crimea, in exchange for Ukraine becoming part of Nato and the EU."
One consideration: this sort of settlement would bring back, in a sort of formal sense, the Cold War, by reintroducing an east/west divide at a specific land border between, (as long as Putin rules, at least), irreconcilable blocs.
Also this week, an argument flared over presidential elections, due to be held next March 31st in Ukraine. Lindsey Graham called for the elections to go on, although they are ruled out under Ukraine’s current martial law. Others argue elections would be too expensive in a cash strapped country at war, and that Zelenskyy would surely win anyway.
The debate points to a new threat to the rituals of democracy today: with the widespread use of drones as a tactic of warfare there is no certainty that people gathered at a polling place could be protected while engaged in their duties as citizens.
The fundamental question: is the exercise of democracy secondary to the defense of borders?
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CHINA, via RUSSIA: A fresh young Soviet leader swept to power in spring of 1985 ready to make a difference.
This story, from the Washington Post on May 17, 1985, is a cautionary tale for Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party. The story, published not quite two months after Mikhail Gorbachev came to power, outlined the new reformer’s plan to:
”raise the drinking age from 18 to 21, delay the opening of liquor stores on working days by three hours, start a gradual reduction of production of vodka and other strong beverages in 1986, and completely ban sweet and potent fruit-based alcoholic drinks by 1988.”
Two years later that scheme, by then abandoned, had contributed to a sharp rise in the production of moonshine, an increase in organized crime, alcohol poisoning and a decline in tax revenues, overcome by printing more money, which fueled inflation.
Now it seems the central Chinese government wishes to disabuse rural villagers of their folk religion, “issuing bans on the burning of spirit money and other offerings during the Hungry Ghost Festival, and calling the practice "uncivilized."
"We must consciously resist worship activities with feudal superstitions, break old habits such as burning spirit money, setting off firecrackers and leaving offerings," the government of Yongren county in the southwestern province of Yunnan said in an Aug. 20 notice on its website.”
Careful with people’s superstitions.
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CONGO: The United Nations peacekeeping force in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, known as MONUSCO, is the largest in the world, with an annual budget of around a billion dollars. It has been present in the country since 1999 and is notoriously ineffective, prompting periodic calls for it to be disbanded or withdrawn.
MONUSCO is routinely played by all sides in the ongoing conflict. As Gérard Prunier puts it in the book Africa’s World War, “since 1994, gaining the moral high ground, from where you can shell your enemies with UN supplies has been a routine part of every battle.”
Most recently a group variously called a sect, a religion and a ‘nationalist organization with a religious overlay’ staged a protest against UN peacekeepers near Goma in eastern DRC on August 30th. The group, called the "Natural Judaic and Messianic Faith Towards the Nations,” has called for withdrawal of the UN so that the national DRC regular army could protect them.
Soldiers of that army stopped the demonstration, in the process killing at least 43 of the people seeking its protection and injuring 56, though there are various reports that up to 222 were arrested, 75 wounded and 48 killed.
Last week police arrested Republican Guard unit Commander Mike Mikombe and Commander Donat Bawili of the DRC armed forces regiment in Goma and announced an investigation.
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ZIMBABWE: Robert Mugabe was deposed six years ago. Last weekend “The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) declared Mnangagwa the winner, with 52.6% of the vote, beating Nelson Chamisa of the Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC), who trailed at 44%.”
Not all of the regions’ leadership is enamored with Mr. Mnangagwa. The leaders of South Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mozambique attended the swearing in ceremony in Harare but 12 other leaders from the Southern African Development Community stayed away.
Among them was Hakainde Hichilema, president of neighboring Zambia. The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Observer Mission watched the Zimbabwean elections and sent a critical report to Mr. Hichilema, who chairs the SADC Politics, Defence, and Security Cooperation committee.
The Zambian president has been critical of Mnangagwa’s (and Mugabe’s) Zanu-PF party since, and Mnangagwa notably invited former Zambian President Edgar Lungu to his swearing in. Lungu jailed Hichilema, who was opposition leader when Lungu was president.
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AUNG SAN SUU KYI: The Burmese dissident and former leader is ill. From Al Jazeera:
“The Nobel laureate, serving 27 years in detention, is ailing, and the military government has denied requests for an external physician to see her, sources familiar with the matter said earlier this week, adding that she is being treated by a prisons department doctor.
Separately, a military officer who also insisted on anonymity confirmed a report by the BBC’s Myanmar-language service that Suu Kyi was suffering a severe toothache that left her unable to eat and caused vomiting.
However, the ruling military council’s spokesperson, Maj Gen Zaw Min Tun, said Suu Kyi was in good health.”
And from The Guardian:
“Aung San Suu Kyi’s life may be at risk, because she has such serious gum disease she is struggling to eat after more than two years in jail, her son has warned, saying he feels powerless to help her.
Myanmar’s ousted leader, now 78, has not been allowed see a doctor even though she was unable to walk at one point, is suffering from vomiting and dizziness and may have problems with her wisdom teeth, Kim Aris said.”
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THE ARCTIC: Russia’s war on Ukraine has strained relations between governments with interests in the high north. The 2023 Arctic Circle Assembly convenes in Reykjavik’s waterfront convention center next month with workshops like MANAGING RISKS AND RELATIONSHIPS WITH RUSSIA IN THE ARCTIC and THE FUTURE OF ARCTIC SHIPPING IN THE ERA OF GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS AND REGIONALIZATION.
There was a time when the Arctic Council, a separate grouping of Russia with the United States, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland, believed in what they thought of as Arctic Exceptionalism, an ability to work together to address, among other matters, the fast changing climate in the high north. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has ground that cooperation to a halt.
One academic, at least, suggests leaving politics at the door. In the interest of “long-term strategic interests in the High North,” she suggests leaving “morality of state actions aside.” In the current environment, that’s a tough ask.
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MEXICO: In Mexico’s multi-party system the three main political parties are the ruling MORENA, the PAN, and the PRI. Reuters reported that “Thousands of supporters celebrated the nomination of Mexican Senator Xochitl Galvez on Sunday [September 3rd] as the 2024 presidential candidate of an opposition alliance set to take on the country's ruling party,” while the BBC reported that former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum was confirmed last week as the governing MORENA party's candidate, meaning that, as the BBC has it, “Mexico appears all but certain to elect its first ever female head of state" in elections next year.
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DODGY DEALS: Oilfield services company Baker Hughes was awarded US$8.7 million in contracts from Mexico’s state-owned oil firm PEMEX during the time that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s son lived in a Houston residence owned by a high-ranking Baker Hughes executive.
Baker Hughes is not former the law firm of former Secretary of State, Treasury and Commerce James Addison Baker III. That’s Baker Botts. But both companies are Houston-based, and there is a Baker family connection. Baker Hughes was founded in 1908 by James A. Baker III’s grandfather James A. Baker Sr.
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BREXIT CONTINUES TO DELIVER: An Albanian man who lived in the UK was arrested by German police and accused of drug trafficking, but will not be extradited to the UK because of German concerns about prison conditions in Britain.
The man’s defense lawyer cited chronic overcrowding, staff shortages and violence among inmates in British prisons, and apparently the Karlsruhe higher regional court agreed.
From a story in the Guardian,
“This is an embarrassment for the UK. There have been similar court decisions before under the European arrest warrant framework, but in relation to member states whose records on prisons and human rights the UK would not wish to compare itself with.”
A UK Ministry of Justice spokesperson said:
“This government is doing more than ever to deliver safe and secure prisons that rehabilitate offenders, cut crime and protect the public.”
This is Toryspeak for “This government is not doing more than ever.”
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SWEDEN’S BABY NAMING LAW:
“Enacted in 1982, the Naming law in Sweden was originally created to prevent non-noble families from giving their children noble names, but a few changes to the law have been made since then. The part of the law referencing first names reads: ‘First names shall not be approved if they can cause offense or can be supposed to cause discomfort for the one using it, or names which for some obvious reason are not suitable as a first name.’ If you later change your name, you must keep at least one of the names that you were originally given, and you can only change your name once.”
Naturally, there are critics.
“Brfxxccxxmnpcccclllmmnprxvclmnckssqlbb11116” (pronounced Albin, naturally) was submitted by a child’s parents in protest of the law, and rejected. The parents later submitted “A” (also pronounced Albin) as the child’s name. It, too, was rejected.”
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FINALLY, GARB OF THE WEEK:
Here is Gabon's new self-proclaimed leader General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, at his ad hoc “swearing in” ceremony on Monday, via a screen shot from a CNN article. This is apparently ceremonial dress from his previous gig as Commander-in-Chief of the Gabonese Republican Guard. Handy to have in the closet for just such an occasion. Splendid.
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WEEKEND READING
Every weekend I suggest worthwhile reading that’s guaranteed to improve your posture, your online dating prospects, and make you an all around better person. Read a dozen articles, lose five pounds. Here we go:
Shiny expensive cars with tinted windows drive past old women crushing stones to sell in bags along the road. Herders from the countryside use sticks to guide their long-horned cattle across town, and at weekends weddings take place on the medan (squares) of the city, with tents, music and dancing. From garrison town to goldrush city: life in Africa’s youngest capital.
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Charles Darwin was the first to see that all lifeforms, from worms to corals, transform the planet. What does that mean for us? Our Earth, shaped by life
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Economic dynamism is vaulting the southern portion of the vast region ahead of its northern cousin. Appalachia’s North–South Divide
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The authors of this article think private companies must be made into stakeholders with governments, in agreements akin to treaties. Can States Learn to Govern Artificial Intelligence—Before It’s Too Late? The AI Power Paradox
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One Decatur, Illinois, resident says Howard Buffett has spent his money in the city on “monuments to himself and to his family and to his friends.” A visit to Decatur, Illinois — the personal playground of Howard Buffett, son of one of the richest men in the world. American Oligarchy
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A 2,000 year old recipe from Oc Eo, “one of the more significant port cities of ancient Southeast Asia.”
“This curry tastes very much like a Southeast Asian curry, similar to something you would find in Cambodia or Thailand…. The aroma is familiar, something that I have smelled in many a restaurant in this region.” The recipe is included. Recreating a 2000-Year-Old Curry: A Gastronomic Adventure into Oc Eo's Ancient Culinary Heritage
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If we're going to look for life on other worlds, why not start with the one planet we know has life? Earth's atmosphere is rich with oxygen and molecules such as methane, which strongly suggest the presence of life, and If Earth were an exoplanet, the James Webb Space Telescope would know there's an intelligent civilization here.
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Premium mediocre is the finest bottle of wine at Olive Garden. Premium mediocre is “truffle” oil on anything (no actual truffles are harmed in the making of “truffle” oil), and extra-leg-room seats in Economy. Premium mediocre is cruise ships and food that Instagrams better than it tastes. The Premium Mediocre Life of Maya Millennial.
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Canada’s geography will be irrevocably transformed. More fires, less snow. An absorbing and extensive look from Maclean’s. Canada in the Year 2060.
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"A 2017 study from the Economic Policy Institute estimated that low-wage workers lose more than $50 billion annually to wage theft." The Real Crime Isn't Shoplifting — It's Wage Theft.
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Trip Report: How Luang Prabang has changed with the coming of the China/Laos railroad. Notes on Luang Prabang in the new era of the train.
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“That’s what women are really talking about when we talk about being afraid. We are talking about men.” I walked 1,000 miles alone through Europe – and learned that fear is the price of freedom.
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In Tuesday’s travel tale we look at German colonialism on a visit to southwest Africa. Good weekend. See you then.