Welcome. Whaddaya know, it’s January 1, 2024.
Most of us will be weary of year end recaps and 2024 forecasts by now. One thing about the new year occurs to me that I haven’t seen a lot written about, and that will have ramifications long past 2024. Let’s talk about it.
We’ve all understood by now that the populist wave now actively seeks to undermine long-established institutions across much of the world. The Orbán and recently replaced PiS governments in Hungary and Poland, respectively, have actively sought to undermine their judiciaries and press freedoms. Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines conducted a strictly extra-judicial anti-drug campaign.
Nayib Bukele in El Salvador has risen to historic popularity by wielding a brutal campaign of incarceration. Brexit was a not even thinly guised exercise in discrediting the institutions of the European Union, empty promises about nonexistent benefits to the UK’s National Health Service to be achieved by leaving, and open racism toward immigrants (aimed on the sly at Turkey's potential accession to the EU) aimed at older, more conservative and less well read British home boys. And so on.
The US, too, is right in the thick of institution destruction. As to media freedoms, outright intimidation has been underway now for at least eight years. Recall 2016, when people at Trump rallies jeered at the assembled press. That same campaign pressed extra judicial action with its chants of “lock her up.” (The judiciary itself has been about self harm meanwhile, with its own questionable behavior, especially that of Supreme Court Justice Thomas and his wife.)
The actual Trump presidency saw attempts to concentrate power in the executive branch of government, the sad and shameful 2017 “Jews will not replace us” torch-lit rally in Charlottesville, VA which the president declined to criticize, Republican efforts to undermine elections at all levels and of course, resistance to the peaceful transfer of power. In 2024, it seems to me, populists have teed up the big one. It looks like we’re set for a run at the United States Constitution.
Two states, with possibly others to follow, have barred Donald Trump from their primary ballots. These rulings will come before the U.S. Supreme Court. Both states base their decisions on interpretations of the constitution’s 14th amendment, and here is the passage that is being interpreted:
Section 3 Disqualification from Holding Office
“No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”
These rulings will be appealed and there are two possible outcomes to the appeals process.
1. The U.S. Supreme Court allows Trump onto the ballot.*
2. The U.S. Supreme Court does not allow Trump onto the ballot (or declines to hear the appeals).
Both possible outcomes share one thing in common: there will be a bitter political fight. In either case the constitution’s integrity is undermined before half the country. And in both cases pandemonium may ensue.
It may be that the left would accept a decision to allow inclusion of Trump on the ballot without resorting to violence. I for one think it better to beat the Trump campaign with votes than judicial maneuvering. In coming to that view I have to agree that, well, in certain cases, we can nod and wink at the constitution.
Constitution, devalued.
It could be that the populist MAGA right would resort to violence. I would be surprised if elements in the movement didn’t, and let’s not kid ourselves about the likelihood of their leader jumping in to cool their anger. You can already hear the MAGA calls to tear up the damned constitution, we need President Trump restored so he can write a new one.
Constitution, devalued.
The U.S. won’t be a leader in this undermining constitutions game. Among other examples, the Modi government systematically undermines non-Hindu civil rights even though article 14 of India’s constitution states that “The State shall not deny to any person equality before law or the equal protection of the laws within the territory of India.” Article 26 of the Turkish Constitution guarantees freedom of expression but under President Erdoğan there are numerous instances of the arrest and incarceration of journalists. And so on.
I must have been dreaming, but I’d held out hope that somehow America’s ‘kinder, gentler’ breed of populism would pull up short of trying to pull down the constitution.
And welcome to Election Year 2024.
* The majority of this court are what’s called ‘constructionists.’ Justices Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanagh and Thomas have all said they’re proud to be. A constructionist is someone who emphasizes the original intent of the constitution’s authors.
Based on the bolded parts of the 14th amendment above, the original intent couldn’t be more clear. The authors of the amendment plainly stated that any office holder who “shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion,” is barred from future office. Period. You can’t show intent more clearly than that.
The conservatives hold the majority of this court. Should they find a way to skirt the original intent of the 14th amendment and allow Trump back on the ballot they make a mockery of their avowed creed.
•••••
Argentina: Fifteen months ago a British tabloid began broadcasting a contest on YouTube to see which contestant, new British Prime Minister Liz Truss or a head of lettuce, would last longer. The lettuce won. I’m not sure what might be an appropriate food to pair with Argentina’s new President Javier Milei in a similar contest (the rambutan comes to mind. Durian, maybe?) but his long term prospects are not good.
I’m guessing Milei’s honeymoon won’t last long. He has sent to an emergency session of his congress a 351 page, 664 article bill proposing reforms and further economic deregulation.
The bill calls for a two-year emergency declaration granting the president extra powers and economic, tax and contractual changes, among other topics, and will be put to vote on January 25th. If the congress rejects the president’s measures, he promises to put them to a referendum. It declares a “public emergency in economic, financial, fiscal, social security, security, defence, tariff, energy, health, administrative and social matters until December 31, 2025,” which may be extended unilaterally “by the Executive Branch for up to two years.”
•••••
A note and a thank you to subscribers: I’m going to leave last year’s publishing schedule on hold for a little while longer yet. I started out here on Substack early last year at the ferocious pace of three columns a week and as I’ve paused to review, first, I think that was too often, and second, I’m not convinced that my commentary is filling a unique niche. There’s no shortage of other writers here on my subject matter.
It is an election year, though. And I have the idea that events in this world are only going to come faster and furiouser. It may be that columns like this will pop up on a more irregular schedule. We’ll see.
At the same time I paused the three times a week version before the holidays, I turned off the paid subscription option and CS&W will stay free until I specifically email you otherwise. No pocketbooks were harmed as a result of your reading this post. To those who have contributed, I’m grateful you think enough of what I write to send support.
Let’s continue to talk about what we see happening in 2024. Talk to me. Let me know what you think. Thanks and cheers! Happy New Year.
•••••
There are something like 20,000 of my travel photos, currently from 113 countries and territories on EarthPhotos.com. And join the 2,100 people who follow my constantly updated Twitter/X list of 200 experts whose job it is to follow Russia’s War on Ukraine.
See you soon.
© 2024, Voices, Inc.
Hi Bill - happy 2024. I hope you and Mirja are both doing well.
I must say that I have really missed your posts. In fact I was going to reach out to you to see what was up, and was delighted to get your email today about this latest post.
I have to disagree with your assessment that you are not adding to the conversation about global affairs and that there are many other outlets on Substack for this.
I don’t personally know other writers here to follow and were we not old friends I probably would not have subscribed to CS&W. That said, over the past year I have learned so much and been alerted to so many things that I would have been ignorant about were they not shared by you.
So I hope you keep this going - perhaps not 3 times a week anymore but frequently - because your thoughts, comments and interests are things that I can relate to and have greatly enriched my world view.
Music always,
Abdul